Last time I sat down to review Sankey charts was in the blissful solitude of lockdowns. At that point, COVID impacts on energy use were not well documented. Now, we’ve got the year of the dip recorded. Time to dig into what it entailed.
The big headline news was that total energy consumption dropped 7.3% to 92.9 Quads! The old school conservationist in me is most encouraged by the absolute drop, to a level not experienced in the 11 year history of the publishing of this chart. Despite this, nearly every prediction is that consumption has already bounced back and will exceed 2019 levels. So, yet again, it will be a tedious wait to see how 2021 responded to 2020.
Before sitting and waiting, let’s see what else there is to get excited about, and where we need to re-dedicate efforts to halt the march of fossil fuel proliferation.
The good news:
Overall Energy Consumption down 7.3% in 2020
Overall Energy Efficiency up 0.9% to 32.9% in 2020
Coal down 19.2% in 2020; Accelerating from 2019 decrease of 14.3%; Down 56.1% since 2010
Solar up 20.2% in 2020; Accelerated from 2019 growth of 9.6%; Up 862% since 2010
Wind up 9.9% in 2020; Accelerated from 2019 growth of 8.3%; Up 227% since 2010
Electricity efficiency had its best year ever at 34.8% efficient, up 1.2%.
Percentage of non-carbon based energy at highest level yet at 16.5%, up from 14.9%
The news that causes hesitation:
Natural gas only down 1.9% despite larger drops in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors
Overall efficiency at 32.9%
Still a lot of wasted energy due to fossil fuel reliance
Transportation only 21% efficient and has flatlined since 2010
Impact of efficient EVs still muted by other trends toward larger, less efficient vehicles and predicted increase of single occupant vehicle use
In the absence of a pandemic, this list would have been almost fully positive, but instead, I am full of reservations. Natural gas in buildings is cause for concern as is a stagnating efficiency of the transportation sector despite rapid increases in EVs. Both building and transportation sectors need more aggressive approaches to decarbonize faster, which will in turn cause overall efficiency to increase.
I’m writing this as congress deliberates infrastructure spending and a large budget reconciliation bill that would invest in efficiency and electrification. The overt climate impacts of 2020 were a stark reminder that bold action needs to drive renewables, energy storage, electric vehicles, electric heat pumps, and weatherization.
As said last year…The arc of energy infrastructure is long, but it bends toward decarbonization. May the arc bend a little faster!